The Kuala Trengganu by election has been called (Malaysiakini's analysis here) at the worse possible time for the ruling Barisan National, or more specifically, UMNO. At a time where internal and public confidence of the ruling coaliation is at an all time low, the prospect of a possible defeat and subsequently a net loss of 2 federal Parliamentary seats would be disasterous, and a rejection of everything UMNO, be it an Abdullah UMNO or a Najib UMNO. Najib's party next year would also be spoilt.
Looking at the makeup of this seat, it is obvious that the Malay vote is the most significant player. The 12% Chinese vote, mainly centered around the urban Bandar consituency, could become a tiebreaker in the event of a split Malay vote, which many are predicting, but we at The Politics Blog do not think that this is likely. Firstly, the Chinese vote in KT itself looks to be split itself; on one side, those that fear PAS' ambitions of an Islamic state and those who are so disillusioned and disatisfied that they are able to overcome their apprehensions about PAS' Islamic state ambition and vote for PAS. Just by looking at past results in this constituency, the Chinese vote has been typically split. Judging by the results in the Bandar state seat in the March 2008 General Elections, the Chinese appear to be slightly in favour of the ruling coaliation.
More importantly, where are the Malays leaning? They make up 88% of this constituency and are the gamemakers of this election. In addition, this election would be an interesting gauge of the Malay reaction to Anwar's sodomy part deux. The last time Anwar 'sodomised' someone, this seat turned green. With the lack of credible and substantive data on the Malay reaction to sodomy 2, this showdown in the Malay heartland would be a fairly accurate indicator of Anwar and his 'baggage'.
Another factor is the 'independant candidate factor'. During the 2008 March 8 elections, independant candidates polled more than the winning margin of the late BN candidate. Our ground polling put most of independant candidate's support Maimun Yusuf's supporters as upper and middle classed Malays and Chinese. Our ground reports showed that these were most likely to vote opposition. Hence, the independant candidate(s) in this race will play a factor, more so in the event of a tight race.
At the end of the day, everything comes down to numbers, numbers and numbers. With the nearest percentage makeup of this constituency being 87% Malay, 12% Chinese and 1% Indian, The Politics Blog is going to crunch the numbers from the (limited) data available and come out with a premature prediction that will change as the date to the by election draws closer.
Malay (88%): 52% PAS, 47% BN
Chinese (11%): 42% PAS, 56% BN
Indian (1%): 100% PAS, 0 (negligible)% BN
Which gives PAS a 51% chunk of the votes and BN 47%. This would translated to an (approximate of):
PAS WINS BY 2,300 VOTES
KT election prediction - PAS win by 2,300 votes! - malaysiakini
PUBLIC TO KNOW CROSSOVER LIST TODAY!
KELANA JAYA: The list of Barisan Nasional members of parliament who would cross over to the Pakatan Rakyat will be announced today, PR de facto leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim said last night.
Addressing more than 10,000 people gathered at the Kelana Jaya Stadium for the PR's Malaysia Day celebration, he claimed that the opposition coalition was poised to take over the Federal Government.
"We have the numbers and we are ready. Tomorrow (today), we will announce it (the crossover list)," he said.
At an impromptu press conference later, he said he had requested to meet with Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi to request for a peaceful transition.
Earlier, a slew of PR leaders and non-governmental organisation heads took to the podium to warm up the crowd for Anwar.
Among the speakers were DAP adviser Lim Kit Siang, Selangor Menteri Besar Tan Sri Abdul Khalid Ibrahim, Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng and Pas secretary-general Kamaluddin Jaafar.
Also present were PKR president Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail and other senior PR leaders.
Kit Siang said it did not matter if the transition of power happened today or on another day, as the people had already decided that there was a need for change in the government.
The celebration was a peaceful affair, preceded by breaking of fast and terawih prayers for many of the Muslim supporters in attendance.
The event had a carnival-like atmosphere, particularly around the stadium perimeter with stalls offering food, drinks, miscellaneous items and PR propaganda materials to interested passers-by.
The public were also given free Malaysian flags and unity bracelets by the organisers of the celebration, which ended at around 11.30pm.
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We shall wait!
PS: I just watched Anwar's speech at Kelana Jaya Stadium last night, and his ending indicated some pretty interesting events that will happen today.
Abdullah to resign today?
A quote from the latest report from Malaysiakini:
If Anwar is meeting Badawi to discuss the transition of power, he must have some very concrete evidence that he has the majority support of the parliament, through either producing enough Statutory Declaration or signed affidavits.
Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim told a 20,000-strong rally that he had the numbers to form a new government and wants to meet with Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi to discuss a handover."Tomorrow is the D-day. We are ready to form the government. We have the numbers and we are ready to announce tomorrow.
"Tomorrow, we are ready. But the best time (for the takeover), I tell you, is when we meet the prime minister....
...According to him, Pakatan Rakyat has submitted a letter to Abdullah today seeking a meeting for a smooth transition of power....
If Anwar meets Badawi today, and shows him that he has the support of BN MPs, by the way of either Statutory Declarations or affidavits, then Badawi can either take one of several actions:
- resign and hand over the reins of power to Anwar
- resign and hand over the reins of power to Najib (trying to convince the BN MPs to stick with BN)
- don't resign and seek a meeting with the MPs (likely)
- don't resign and delay the change of government till when parliament next convenes
If Badawi does not resign, Anwar can then take the following steps:
- wait till when parliament convenes to file a motion of no confidence (risky, giving BN more time to prepare)
- convene an emergency parliament session (not likely, unless the speaker is willing to convene a special session)
- seek an audience with the DYMM Yang Dipertuan Agong to either 1. dissolve the parliament and call snap polls (the Agong has this right), or 2. request the Agong to order the PM to resign (and then we go into tricky constitutional ground here)
There are 2 ways Anwar can snatch power:
- By having more than 1+simple majority in the parliament
- By being the biggest voting block in the parliament (results in a minority government, and becomes very unstable)
Either way, the developments today will shape the landscape of Malaysian politics for years to come.
ZAID TO JOIN PKR
It has been reported that resigned Minister in Prime Minister's department Zaid Ibrahim will be joining PKR, reports Merdeka Review. He will purportedly appear in the Kelana Jaya Stadium tonight alongside Pakatan Rakyat leaders Lim Kit Siang, Hadi Awang and Anwar Ibrahim.
More news as it comes in.
Teresa’s mum relates horror detention
The following is a transcript of what Teresa’s mum said outside the police station after visiting her for 90 minutes.
“I hope she can regain her freedom and come out as soon as possible and continue to live an ordinary life, instead of being detained in a cage like a dog. They locked her up once she walked into that room, which is only 6′ x 8′. She is not allowed to read newspaper or any other reading material. She lost all her freedom!
“I feel so sad. Yes they gave her three meals a day, but the food is bad! She had diarrhea this morning, and her blood pressure plunged!
“Her dad did not notice it, but she was so pale when we met her. It pains me seeing her like that. I never expected that my daughter, who spend 2/3 of her time a day servicing the people, fighting for the people’s interest and right, can end up like this.
“This Bahasa Malaysia newspaper purposely defamed her, twisted the facts just to get her into trouble, to victimize her.
“I can only encourage her. I told her we are people who believe in God. Bible told us those who are victimize because they fight for justice are the blessed people. Such people are children of God. I encourage her with these words. I told her not to give up but keep on praying.”
Sourced from Teresa Kok's blog
It breaks my heart, and it should break everybody's , that a woman, no, a saint that is so selfless is subjected to such an evil and draconian law; forced to endure such barbaric and inhumane treatment.
Oh, and if you are reading this freshly posted, why aren't you at the Kelana Jaya Stadium protesting this evil ISA?
PS: I have a reason - I am overseas :P
My 18 hours under ISA
The following is the article written by Tan Hoon Cheng in the Sin Chew newspaper, which was featured in Malaysiakini and The Star.
On 12 September, about eight thirty in the evening, I was at my home in Bukit Mertajam, Penang. While enjoying my yew char koay (fried dough stick), I was worried about the show cause letter issued to Sin Chew Daily, and anxious about the days ahead for my newspaper.
Suddenly, a group of plain cloth police officers appeared at my front gate. The person who started to identify the group and the purpose of this visit was a woman officer. She was also the only one in her uniform.
Through the gate, she told me that I have to follow them to the Police station, in response to that I told her that unless they have a warrant of arrest, I will not open the gate. At the same time, I immediately rung up the legal adviser of our company and my direct superior, seeking their advice.
Later, the female officer told me that they are arresting me under Internal Security Act, therefore a warrant is not required. On hearing that, I was immediately was prepared for the worst.
I have to act calm, comforting my parents and reassuring them that my colleagues would be waiting for me at the police station to render assistance. When I was taken away, my parents acted strongly, they kept on asking the police to accord me with proper treatment.
I was brought to Seberang Perai Tengah IPD (district head office), and I was placed in a chilling cold room while waiting for the police to begin their paperwork. I was accompanied by a female officer who seemed to be trembling as a result of the low room temperature as well. To break the silence, I initiated a conversation. She told me, “You seemed to be very calm.”
I told her, “I am arrested under the Internal Security Act, even though I am scared, I have to face this reality. But I am worried about my parents, friends and relatives, they must be very worried about me.”
To be frank, I was very cool-headed. I believed that there must be a lot of people out there supporting me, giving me the strength that I need, so I must stay strong, to be with these people who are supporting me.
The police recorded all my personal belongings, these were later taken away from me. After that, I am considered ready to be sent to the Police Contingent Headquarters in Penang. When I was brought out of the police station, I realised that a lot of my colleagues in the media, together with representative from different parties and groups were already waiting outside the Police station to show their support. Seeing this,I was deeply touched, I could no longer hold my tears.
When the police car arrived at the station’s entrance, my superior, Puah Eu Peng, our Northern Region Manager, tried to halt the car with his body, to slow the police car’s movement. He knocked at the window, to make sure that I was in the car and gestured to show me his support.
I instantly wiped off my tears, I realised that a lot of them are staying with me, I must be with them as well.
After taking my thumbprints, I was given my dinner and arranged to spend my night in remand. It was not to my knowledge that my colleagues in the profession and people from different groups and parties were there to show their support, right outside that station.
I requested the female officer to keep the lights on. She told me not to worry, she will not switch off the lights. The police also informed me that I would be meeting my parents tomorrow morning at eight. I have spent a very long time, thinking of everything that I have to tell my parents. I have lost touch with the outside world this is my only opportunity, I must cherish it, to clearly explain everything to my parents.
After clearing my mind and organising my thoughts, I tried to sleep while lying on the wooden bed with the company of the mosquitoes and the noise of water dripping. I have no idea what tomorrow holds for me, but I know I have to be in my perfect condition to handle everything.
I have never suffered from insomnia and this very night, I finally experienced it. Deep down in my heart, I know that those who care about me, would also be experiencing the same, my heart wrenched thinking of that.
At 6 o’clock in the next morning, when I was about to wash up, the female officer passed me the clothing brought by my parents. I was surprised; everything was new, the toiletries, t-shirts, shorts, panties.
I later discovered that the ‘parents’ that the police officer was referring to were a bunch of my colleagues. While waiting outside the Penang Police Contingent Headquarter, they have prepared all these for me. They were uncertain when I would be released, but they told themselves that they must get these necessity items ready in the briefest time possible.
I met my parents and bided them goodbye, the police informed me that they would bring me to the Police Headquarter in Bukit Aman in Kuala Lumpur. My heart sank, I told myself this is the beginning of it, I must brace myself for everything.
After few turns of event, I was eventually brought to the Perak Police Headquarter in Ipoh. After a brief interrogation session, I was brought back to Penang Police Headquarter again.
It was here, where I was interrogated further. I told myself to keep my mind clear, I must tell them the truth, and respond appropriately.
After the interrogation session, I was brought to see another higher-ranked officer, he told me, “We can both go home now!”. Both of us turned to the clock on the wall, the time was 2.25p.m.
This my 18 hours under ISA. I have gone through a lot
After being released, I received a lot of messages, telephone calls and bouquets. My colleagues in the press, representatives from political parties, society leaders, schoolmates, classmates, friends and relatives have visited me at home. Of course, not forgetting the readers and the public who called up or visited Sin Chew Daily’s office in Penang or the Head Office in Petaling Jaya.
Calls, messages, well wishes, and visits from readers and friends. To all of them, I have to express my deepest gratitude. During that 18 hours which was filled with a lot of uncertainties, I felt that there is some unknown strength that has supported me throughout, I knew it must be from you all, those whom I knew or have not met!
I realise that our journey is still full with challenges and obstacles, so we have to continue the same righteous spirit and courage that we have all shown this time! Our society needs this spirit, to build a better tomorrow.
I have finally been freed, but I hope Teresa Kok and Raja Petra Kamaruddin and all those detainees under the Internal Security Act, could be released as soon as as possible. If the authorities think that they have broken the law, they should brought to the court of law to receive transparent and fair trials.
By Tan Hoon Cheng from Sin Chew Daily
Crossovers might be declared tonight!
Tomorrow is Malaysia Day, and perhaps the most highly anticipated Malaysia Day in the history of the nation. The question on everybody's mind is whether Anwar will be able to fulfill his promise of taking over the government by then.
While the Pakatan Rakyat leadership have been evasive over the past few weeks on the issue of crossovers, there appears to be some clues as to what would happen tomorrow/tonight.
Quoting from Malaysian Insider:
Saifuddin said it was also possible that BN or Umno MPs need not leave their party and simply told us to "study the Constitution and think outside the box-.
According to Article 43 (2) of the Federal Constitution, it is stated that "the Yang di-Pertuan Agong shall first appoint as Perdana Menteri (Prime Minister) to preside over the Cabinet a member of the House of Representatives who in his judgment is likely to command the confidence of the majority of the members of that House-.
The three key words here are judgment, confidence and majority. Party allegiance is not mentioned.
According to Saifuddin's reasoning, MPs need to only give Anwar their "confidence" in forming a new administration. Since no defections are actually taking place, PR can spin it into a matter of "conscience" rather than "power-grabbing...
..."Majority here means the biggest single group. Most of the time it refers to the simple majority, but if there are more than two groups of MPs then the leader of the biggest one shall be appointed PM," explained Prof Abdul Aziz Bari, a constitutional academician from the International Islamic University.
"Our Constitution does not discriminate against the so-called minority government and it is at the discretion of the King and not subject to judicial review," he added....
The Malaysian Insider is indeed correct. A minority government can be declared, or BN MPs might declare their intention to defect from BN but not join PR. This has happened in many different countries around the world, most notably the minority governments of Canada. Either way, it will be pretty interesting to watch it unfold.
I have a feeling that tonight's rally in the Kelana Jaya Stadium at 7pm will be venue and place where Anwar declares his intentions and offers concrete evidence.
After all, the whole nation is waiting and banking on him.
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