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The Bukits and Batang Ai by election predictions

I don't want to brag, but the last time I did a prediction on a by-election in Malaysia (Kuala Trengganu), I correctly predicted the winner and the results to the nearest hundred (with a bit of tembak luck), closer than anyone, including Kian Ming or Raja Petra. This time, I will attempt to do the same with the next 3 by elections in Bukit Selambau, Bukit Gantang, and Batang Ai.

Bukit Selambau
Malay: 50.20%, Chinese: 19.30%, Indian: 29.50%, Others: 1.00%
15 candidates, 34977 voters. While third party candidates have traditionally been discounted and used for comic relief. However, I think the third party candidates (13 of them, by the way) will have some impact in this election. Malay votes will be split between 3 parties, Pakatan, UMNO, and the Pekida candidate which will siphon his votes mostly away from BN. Generally, the further north we go the more influence PAS has, but seeing that PKR is carrying the Pakatan banner, its influence will be somewhat muted.

Support for Pakatan Rakyat
Chinese: 60-40
Indians: 70-30
Malays: 45-40-15
Giving Pakatan a total of 55.63% of the votes, while BN 37.37% of the votes, hence Pakatan winning with a 5109 vote majority assuming a 80% turnout rate. (Previous result Pakatan win of 2362 votes)

Bukit Gantang
Malay: 63.50%, Chinese: 27.10%, Indian: 9.10%, Others: 0.20%
Many people think this is a referendum on the political takeover orchestrated by now PM Najib Tun Razak. While many disagree, I think the underlying issue has been set by both sides to be the takeover. The non-Malay vote bank is solidly behind Pakatan Rakyat, while the Malays are more or less a connundrum. However, I think Pakatan will win this seat with a majority around the same as March8. Despite losing the UMNO protest votes from March 08, it will gain increased non-Malay, especially Chinese support.

Support for Pakatan Rakyat
Chinese: 70-30
Indians: 65-35
Malays: 45-55
Giving: 53.46% of the votes, a 1535 majority assuming a 80% turnout rate.
Previous result (Pakatan win with 1566 votes)

Batang Ai
95% Iban, remaining Chinese and other indigenous people
This is the election that has the most probability of my prediction being wrong. The settlements near the dam, amounting to 20% of the constituents, are solidly behind PKR, while other rural folk appear to be behind BN. The shock and awe tactics employed by the BN are due on election eve, so its really hard to see where this one will swing.

But I'll take a stab and say Pakatan win of 200-300 votes. Don't ever quote me on this one (except if I am really correct). (Previous result BN win of 800+ votes)

24 comments:

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佳慧 said...

A crowd is not company. ....................................................

童紫勳 said...

婚姻對男人來說是賭他的自由,對女人而言卻是賭她的幸福。......................................................

賢諭 said...

很喜歡你的部落格風格,期待你的更新!........................................

裕以 said...

任何事都是由一個決心,一顆種子開始。..................................................

昱廷昱廷 said...

謝謝您的分享~感恩唷!!..................................................

文君 said...

你要教你的孩子走路;但是,應由孩子自己去學走路. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

M12aeganT_Moe12 said...

Tomorrow will be better~.................................................................

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蕭惟秀蕭惟秀 said...

很喜歡看看別人的生活故事,謝謝您的分享哦~~............................................................

宛真宛真 said...

快樂與滿足的秘訣,就在全心全意投注於現在的每一分,每一秒上..................................................

寧年 said...

從來愛都不知它的深度,非得等到別離的時候.................................................................

ju吳phe宇te佳ns said...

缺少智慧,就是缺少一切..................................................

蔡舜娟蔡舜娟 said...

真正仁慈的人,會忘記他們做過的善行,他們全心投入現在的工作,過去的事已被遺忘。..................................................

曾戴山柔曾戴山柔 said...

大肚能容,了卻人間多少事,滿腔歡喜,笑開天下古今愁。..................................................

孫邦柔 said...

期待新的內容 感謝你............................................................

文王廷 said...

再度來訪@v@ 謝謝分享囉~ ............................................................

君黃怡黃怡 said...

Learning makes life sweet.......................................................................

凱許倫 said...

不要去想沒拿到的東西,多想想自己手裡所擁有的..................................................

偉曹琬 said...

你怎麼能經過一片海,而忘記它的藍?......................................................................

群育航學 said...

不論做什麼事,相信自己,別讓別人的一句話,把你擊倒。..................................................

翊翊翊翊張瑜翊翊翊 said...

人生是故事的創造與遺忘。............................................................

翊翊翊翊張瑜翊翊翊 said...

在莫非定律中有項笨蛋定律:「一個組織中的笨蛋,恆大於等於三分之二。」..................................................