The Bukits and Batang Ai by election predictions

I don't want to brag, but the last time I did a prediction on a by-election in Malaysia (Kuala Trengganu), I correctly predicted the winner and the results to the nearest hundred (with a bit of tembak luck), closer than anyone, including Kian Ming or Raja Petra. This time, I will attempt to do the same with the next 3 by elections in Bukit Selambau, Bukit Gantang, and Batang Ai.

Bukit Selambau
Malay: 50.20%, Chinese: 19.30%, Indian: 29.50%, Others: 1.00%
15 candidates, 34977 voters. While third party candidates have traditionally been discounted and used for comic relief. However, I think the third party candidates (13 of them, by the way) will have some impact in this election. Malay votes will be split between 3 parties, Pakatan, UMNO, and the Pekida candidate which will siphon his votes mostly away from BN. Generally, the further north we go the more influence PAS has, but seeing that PKR is carrying the Pakatan banner, its influence will be somewhat muted.

Support for Pakatan Rakyat
Chinese: 60-40
Indians: 70-30
Malays: 45-40-15
Giving Pakatan a total of 55.63% of the votes, while BN 37.37% of the votes, hence Pakatan winning with a 5109 vote majority assuming a 80% turnout rate. (Previous result Pakatan win of 2362 votes)

Bukit Gantang
Malay: 63.50%, Chinese: 27.10%, Indian: 9.10%, Others: 0.20%
Many people think this is a referendum on the political takeover orchestrated by now PM Najib Tun Razak. While many disagree, I think the underlying issue has been set by both sides to be the takeover. The non-Malay vote bank is solidly behind Pakatan Rakyat, while the Malays are more or less a connundrum. However, I think Pakatan will win this seat with a majority around the same as March8. Despite losing the UMNO protest votes from March 08, it will gain increased non-Malay, especially Chinese support.

Support for Pakatan Rakyat
Chinese: 70-30
Indians: 65-35
Malays: 45-55
Giving: 53.46% of the votes, a 1535 majority assuming a 80% turnout rate.
Previous result (Pakatan win with 1566 votes)

Batang Ai
95% Iban, remaining Chinese and other indigenous people
This is the election that has the most probability of my prediction being wrong. The settlements near the dam, amounting to 20% of the constituents, are solidly behind PKR, while other rural folk appear to be behind BN. The shock and awe tactics employed by the BN are due on election eve, so its really hard to see where this one will swing.

But I'll take a stab and say Pakatan win of 200-300 votes. Don't ever quote me on this one (except if I am really correct). (Previous result BN win of 800+ votes)