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Abdullah to resign today?

A quote from the latest report from Malaysiakini:

Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim told a 20,000-strong rally that he had the numbers to form a new government and wants to meet with Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi to discuss a handover."Tomorrow is the D-day. We are ready to form the government. We have the numbers and we are ready to announce tomorrow.

"Tomorrow, we are ready. But the best time (for the takeover), I tell you, is when we meet the prime minister....

...According to him, Pakatan Rakyat has submitted a letter to Abdullah today seeking a meeting for a smooth transition of power....
If Anwar is meeting Badawi to discuss the transition of power, he must have some very concrete evidence that he has the majority support of the parliament, through either producing enough Statutory Declaration or signed affidavits.

If Anwar meets Badawi today, and shows him that he has the support of BN MPs, by the way of either Statutory Declarations or affidavits, then Badawi can either take one of several actions:
- resign and hand over the reins of power to Anwar
- resign and hand over the reins of power to Najib (trying to convince the BN MPs to stick with BN)
- don't resign and seek a meeting with the MPs (likely)
- don't resign and delay the change of government till when parliament next convenes

If Badawi does not resign, Anwar can then take the following steps:
- wait till when parliament convenes to file a motion of no confidence (risky, giving BN more time to prepare)
- convene an emergency parliament session (not likely, unless the speaker is willing to convene a special session)
- seek an audience with the DYMM Yang Dipertuan Agong to either 1. dissolve the parliament and call snap polls (the Agong has this right), or 2. request the Agong to order the PM to resign (and then we go into tricky constitutional ground here)

There are 2 ways Anwar can snatch power:
- By having more than 1+simple majority in the parliament
- By being the biggest voting block in the parliament (results in a minority government, and becomes very unstable)

Either way, the developments today will shape the landscape of Malaysian politics for years to come.


Samuel Goh Kim Eng said...


Remember the story of Moses
Who went up to Egypt's pharoah
To request for "Let my people go!"
So that no moss with sorrow grows

(C) Samuel Goh Kim Eng - 160908
Tue. 16th Sept. 2008.