I don't want to brag, but the last time I did a prediction on a by-election in Malaysia (Kuala Trengganu), I correctly predicted the winner and the results to the nearest hundred (with a bit of tembak luck), closer than anyone, including Kian Ming or Raja Petra. This time, I will attempt to do the same with the next 3 by elections in Bukit Selambau, Bukit Gantang, and Batang Ai.
Bukit Selambau
Malay: 50.20%, Chinese: 19.30%, Indian: 29.50%, Others: 1.00%
15 candidates, 34977 voters. While third party candidates have traditionally been discounted and used for comic relief. However, I think the third party candidates (13 of them, by the way) will have some impact in this election. Malay votes will be split between 3 parties, Pakatan, UMNO, and the Pekida candidate which will siphon his votes mostly away from BN. Generally, the further north we go the more influence PAS has, but seeing that PKR is carrying the Pakatan banner, its influence will be somewhat muted.
Support for Pakatan Rakyat
Chinese: 60-40
Indians: 70-30
Malays: 45-40-15
Giving Pakatan a total of 55.63% of the votes, while BN 37.37% of the votes, hence Pakatan winning with a 5109 vote majority assuming a 80% turnout rate. (Previous result Pakatan win of 2362 votes)
Bukit Gantang
Malay: 63.50%, Chinese: 27.10%, Indian: 9.10%, Others: 0.20%
Many people think this is a referendum on the political takeover orchestrated by now PM Najib Tun Razak. While many disagree, I think the underlying issue has been set by both sides to be the takeover. The non-Malay vote bank is solidly behind Pakatan Rakyat, while the Malays are more or less a connundrum. However, I think Pakatan will win this seat with a majority around the same as March8. Despite losing the UMNO protest votes from March 08, it will gain increased non-Malay, especially Chinese support.
Support for Pakatan Rakyat
Chinese: 70-30
Indians: 65-35
Malays: 45-55
Giving: 53.46% of the votes, a 1535 majority assuming a 80% turnout rate.
Previous result (Pakatan win with 1566 votes)
Batang Ai
95% Iban, remaining Chinese and other indigenous people
This is the election that has the most probability of my prediction being wrong. The settlements near the dam, amounting to 20% of the constituents, are solidly behind PKR, while other rural folk appear to be behind BN. The shock and awe tactics employed by the BN are due on election eve, so its really hard to see where this one will swing.
But I'll take a stab and say Pakatan win of 200-300 votes. Don't ever quote me on this one (except if I am really correct). (Previous result BN win of 800+ votes)
The Bukits and Batang Ai by election predictions
Confusion Reigns Hours Before Power Transfer
A few hours before the purported power transfer between Deputy Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak and Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi, confusion reigns as the nation holds its breath.
Will the DYMM Sri Paduka Baginda allow the power transfer or not?
As the clock ticks closer and closer to the purported inauguration of the most controversial Prime Ministers in the history of this nation, Malaysians of all races are praying and hoping for a miracle.
We want our Tuanku, in his infinite wisdom to block, or at least delay this power transition.
With all due respect, should the Tuanku not convene Parliament to see who has the support of the majority of the Dewan Rakyat? Discounting this, there are many deeper concerns regarding the ascendency of Najib Tun Razak.
Ampun Tuanku!
Daulat Tuanku!
Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak is the most contriversial politician to ascend to the office of chief of executive. In the weeks leading up to these last few desperate moments, unprecedented negative international media coverage, from the streets of Lodon, to the homes of Paris, from the shores of Brisbane to the rivers of Bangkok, have been published in papers around the world. The image of Malaysia has already been tarnished. We are regarded as a nation without the rule of law, where the Deputy Prime Minister can be accused of such serious allegations and continue to hold office without being cleared.
In addition, with the controversial Eurocopter deals, and the increasing heavy handed crackdowns on dissent, including the banning of two opposition news organs and the forceful breakup of several opposition rallies with tear gas canisters within weeks of this purported ascendency, we, your loyal subjects are afraid. We are afraid of the oppression and supression if this power transition takes place.
Ampun Tuanku,
Please don't allow Malaysia's image to continue on this accelerating downward spiral. By appointing Najib as the chief executive of the nation, we are signalling to the world that even such a tainted man with such immense, heavy baggage can lead the country.
Please stop this, Tuanku!
Ampun Tuanku!
Daulat Tuanku!
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Nat Tan has a simillar letter here: A Rakyat’s Open Plea to DYMM Yang diPertuan Agong - Save us from Najib
Pakatan Rakyat, representing a block of 81 MPs have petitioned the Tuanku in a similar letter: Letter from Pakatan to DYMM Seri Paduka Baginda Agong
Malaysia truly Asia!
In a court of law you have the chance to defend yourself.
In a court of law you have the right to confront your accuser.
Even Nazi War Criminals can defend themselves.
Even rapists have the right to confront their accusers, the rape victims.
In the Malaysian Parliament you can't.
In the Malaysian Parliament you get booted out.
Malaysia, truly Asia.
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since 13/9/08
